AI Is Rewriting the Rules. Who Controls the Outcome?

Open Source, DPGs & the Fight for Digital Independence

Date

2026-05-26

Location

FWD50, Ottawa / Virtual

Speakers

Mike Gifford (CivicActions)

Digital Transformation Is Hard

The legacy models of the last 30 years no longer protect us

  • Proprietary software was important
  • It helped organize both the technology & the people around it
  • It also entrenched a handful of global brands & narrow mindsets
  • Now open source powers the vast majority of modern software enterprise
  • Countries like Germany are clearly seeing open source as digital infrastructure
  • There are solid, reliable, secure open source alternatives

The Davos Rupture

"We are in a rupture, not a transition." — Mark Carney, 2026

  • The old rules-based order is fading
  • The "Natural Logic" for IT has been choosing between USA brands
  • Middle powers face a choice:
    • Accommodate & hope
    • Act to build strategic autonomy
  • Digital Infrastructure is a new front line
  • Code now matters a lot in national security
  • Digital independence is now defined the ability to choose

Proof of Concept: Europe’s Shift

Europe is truly leading the way

  • Digital independence is possible now
  • Europe is quickly moving to prove this
  • Leaning on global software & systems, governments can build & buy local
  • The strongest alternative to America-first is global collaboration
  • Digital Public Goods & Digital Public Infrastructure focus humany efforts
  • Long-term investments becomes future-proofing for government

Most Governments are Digital Tenants

Why proprietary software has become a sovereignty risk

Performative Sovereignty

  • Data residency becomes meaningless
  • Corporate pledges are sales-talk
  • SaaS models became vendor lock-in

The Harsh Reality

  • Dependency: Very limited audit-ability
  • Laws: Parent company's laws win
  • Framing: We are Digital Colonies

If you cannot inspect, improve or distribute it, you certainly don't control it.

AI: The Sovereignty Fork

Two paths for the future of state power

Algorithmic Clientelism

  • Consolidated: Total control by foreign tech hegemons
  • Surrender of Authority: States become petitioners, relying on corporate EULAs for "rights"
  • Monoculture: One-size-fits-all values and logic

Participatory Stewardship

  • Distributed: Power shared across open ecosystems
  • Active Authority: Governments co-shape, fork, and fix the code they run
  • Diverse: Models localized to specific laws & cultures

AI investment must shift from replacing human labor to augmenting national autonomy.

The Middle Power Strategy

Participatory Sovereignty Through DPGs

  • Allied Autonomy: Absolute independence is impossible alone; middle powers gain leverage through shared code stacks
  • Collective Insurance: Digital Public Goods (DPGs) provide a sovereign fallback so that no external player can pull the plug
  • Interoperability: Building on global, open DPI building blocks
  • The EuroStack Play: Actively aligning with the EU, UK, and India to be architects of the roadmap, not passive buyers

Sovereign SLMs: "Weights as Law"

Deploying open government AI safely

  • Local Deployment: Running models on sovereign, domestic, renewable compute
  • Context-Aware: Trained strictly on our laws, regulatory frameworks, and cultural context
  • Regulated: How do you begin to regulate a LLM?
  • Open Weights: If the weights and training data aren't inspectable, governance is a black box
  • Predictable Outcomes: Trading generative chaos for deterministic public administration
  • Controlled Costs & Versions: Keeping power over critical system

Procurement as Industrial Policy

Feeding the Ecosystem, Not the Hegemons

  • Public Money, Public Code: If we pay for it, it should be public
  • Modular Contracting: Breakup with corporate lock-in
  • Shift Incentives: Encourage responsible collaboration
  • Local Ecosystems : Leveraging SME innovation
  • open source / open standards is now critical infrastructure
  • Currently most governments aren't contributing
  • Sovereign Tech Agencies are supporting better governance
  • We aren't going to vibe-code our way to better digital government

The FWD50 Call to Action

From Tenants to Architects

  • Audit Your Stack: Where is the Rupture Risk?
  • Prioritize DPGs: Before buying SaaS, ask look to see if DPG exists
  • Find the Others: Are there other agencies with similar needs?
  • Collaborate Globally: Middle powers must work together

The future will be controlled by those that best steward digital infrastructure.

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